[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 06 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 7 10:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 06 December.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
07-09 December. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed varied mostly between 350 to 370 km/s but showed a sudden
increase to around 400 km/s after 1930 UT. The total IMF (Bt)
varied between 1 nT and 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF,
Bz, varied between -5 nT and +4 nT and the solar wind density
between 3 and 6 ppcc. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
mostly near background levels through UT day, 07 December. Slight
enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible during UT
days 08 and 09 December due to approaching negative polarity
southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 3 12111111
Learmonth 5 21112212
Alice Springs 3 11111111
Gingin 4 21111112
Canberra 3 11111111
Hobart 3 12111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11001000
Casey 17 45432122
Mawson 8 23111124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0001100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 5 Quiet
08 Dec 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
09 Dec 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels in the Australian
and mostly quiet with isolated unsettled and active periods in
the Antarctic regions on UT day 06 December. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next
three UT days, 07-09 December with the possibility of some unsettled
periods on 08 and 09 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed on UT day 06 December.
Strong sporadic E and night time spread F were observed at mid
latitudes. Mildly to moderately depressed to near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 07-09 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
08 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
09 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed on UT day 06 December.
Strong sporadic E and night time spread F were observed at mid
latitudes. Mildly to moderately depressed to near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected over the Australian region during 07-09 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 25900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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