[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 05 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 6 10:31:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 05 Dec. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Previously numbered
AR 2752 may return on 07 Dec. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 06-08 Dec. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed gradually increased from
300 to 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 6
nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between -2 nT
and +3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly
near background levels for the next three UT days, 06-08 Dec
with possible mild enhancements on 08 Dec due to approaching
negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 10022111
Cocos Island 1 10010100
Darwin 3 11021111
Townsville 4 11022112
Learmonth 4 20022112
Alice Springs 2 10021011
Gingin 2 10012101
Canberra 2 10022001
Hobart 2 11022001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 00012000
Casey 7 33222111
Mawson 4 12012121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1210 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 5 Quiet
07 Dec 5 Quiet
08 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 05 Dec. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT
days, 06-08 Dec with some unsettled periods on 08 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 06-08 Dec. Higher latitude conditions
likely to be slightly degraded.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
07 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
08 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed on UT day 05 Dec. Night
time spread F and evening sporadic E observed at mid latitudes.
Mildly depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected
over the Australian region 06-08 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 24000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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