[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 07 Dec 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 8 10:31:34 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 07 December. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
08-10 December. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind 
speed varied mostly between 350 to 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
varied between 1 nT and 5 nT. The north-south component of IMF, 
Bz, varied between -2 nT and +2 nT and the solar wind density 
between 3 and 7 ppcc. Due to the effect of a coronal hole in 
the southern hemisphere, the solar wind speed is expected to 
show slight enhancements during UT days 08 and 09 December. Solar 
wind is then expected to decline to normal values through UT 
day, 10 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Darwin               2   11110111
      Townsville           2   01110121
      Learmonth            3   11110112
      Alice Springs        2   10110111
      Gingin               2   21010012
      Canberra             1   01110011
      Hobart               1   01110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey               11   33431112
      Mawson               9   22211134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
09 Dec     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
10 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels in the Australian 
and mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods in the Antarctic 
regions on UT day 07 December. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 
08-10 December with the possibility of some unsettled periods 
on 08 and 09 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
09 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
10 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to moderately depressed on UT day 07 December. 
Strong sporadic E were observed at mid latitudes. Mildly to moderately 
depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the 
next three UT days, 08-10 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Dec   -36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                35%
09 Dec   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                35%
10 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to moderately depressed on UT day 07 December. 
Strong sporadic E were observed at mid latitudes. Mildly to moderately 
depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the 
Australian region during UT days, 08-10 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    47500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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