[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 28 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 29 09:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 28 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 29-31 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 28 August, the solar wind speed was elevated,
varying in the range 420-500 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged
between 3 nT and 6 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied between +4 nT and -4 nT and was mostly positive. On UT
days 29-30 August, the solar wind speed is expected be mostly
at its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Cocos Island 1 21100000
Darwin 2 21101001
Townsville 2 21201001
Learmonth 3 22201000
Alice Springs 2 12101001
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 2 11201010
Canberra 1 11100000
Launceston 2 12201000
Hobart 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 8 34311010
Mawson 12 53212013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3323 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 7 Quiet
30 Aug 7 Quiet
31 Aug 17 Quiet to Minor Storm
COMMENT: On UT day 28 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. In Antarctica, mostly
Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain mostly at Quiet levels during the next
two UT days, 29-30 August, and the first half of the third UT
day, 31 August. Then geomagnetic activity is expected to increase
to Minor Storm levels due to arrival of the corotating interaction
region and high speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 29-31 August. Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected
in the second half of the third UT day, 31 August, due to predicted
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 28 August. Mild enhancements were
observed across Southern Australian regions during local night.
Sporadic E occurrences were observed over all sites. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly levels for UT days
29-31 August. Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected
in the second half of the third UT day, 31 August, due to predicted
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 90100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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