[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 27 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 28 09:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 27 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 28-30 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. At the beginning of UT day 27 August, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels; then it was enhanced, the
maximum speed being around 550 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged
between 3 nT and 12 nT, the highest values being observed before
0415 UT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied mostly
between +11 nT and -8 nT. On UT day 28 August, the solar wind
speed is expected to remain moderately elevated due to high speed
solar wind streams associated with the recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 23232121
Cocos Island 6 23231110
Darwin 10 34231121
Townsville 8 33232120
Learmonth 10 34232120
Alice Springs 9 33232121
Culgoora 8 23232121
Gingin 9 23232230
Canberra 6 23132110
Launceston 10 24232221
Hobart 8 23232121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 23153100
Casey 13 44332121
Mawson 20 45433322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 NA
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Aug 7 Quiet
30 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 27 August, mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels
of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Australian region
in the first half of the day, then geomagnetic activity decreased
to mostly Quiet levels. In Antarctica, geomagnetic activity reached
Active and Minor Storm levels in the first half of the day, then
it decreased to Quiet and Unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at Quiet levels during
the next three UT days, 28-30 August. Isolated Unsettled to Active
periods are possible on 28 August due to high speed solar wind
streams associated with the recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 28-30 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 27 August. Mild enhancements were
observed across Southern Australian regions during local night.
Sporadic E occurrences were observed over all sites. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly levels for UT days
28-30 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 25600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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