[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 29 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 30 09:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 29 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 30 August to 01 September.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 29 August, the solar wind speed was mostly
near its nominal levels, varying in the range 350-410 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 6 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied between +5 nT and -3 nT. On
UT day 30 August, the solar wind speed is expected be at its
nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 00001101
Cocos Island 1 01001110
Darwin 2 10101112
Townsville 2 11001112
Learmonth 2 11102110
Alice Springs 1 00001101
Gingin 0 10001000
Canberra 0 00001001
Launceston 1 00001101
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 21112100
Mawson 8 31123113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2110 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 7 Quiet
31 Aug 19 Quiet to Minor Storm
01 Sep 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 28 August and
is current for 31 Aug only. On UT day 29 August, Quiet levels
of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Australian region
and mostly Quiet levels were observed in Antarctica. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at Quiet levels during
the next UT day, 30 August, and the first half of 31 August.
Then geomagnetic activity is expected to increase up to Minor
Storm levels due to arrival of the corotating interaction region
and high speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent
coronal hole. Isolated Major Storm levels are possible on 31
August and 01 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
31 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
01 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 30 August and the first half of 31 August. Degraded HF propagation
conditions are expected in the second half of 31 August and on
01 September due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 29 August. Mild enhancements were
observed across Southern Australian regions during local night.
Sporadic E occurrences were observed over all sites. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly levels for UT days
30 August to 01 September. Degraded HF propagation conditions
are expected in the second half of UT day 31 August and on 01
September due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 90700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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