[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 15 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 16 09:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 15 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 16-18 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 15 August, the solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from 460 km/s to 420 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between
2.5 nT and 6.5 nT and IMF north-south component, Bz, varied in
the range -2/+3 nT. The solar wind particle density stayed mostly
between 2 ppcc and 4 ppcc during this period. The solar wind
stream is expected to stay at moderate levels though UT day 16
August and then show a gradual weakening over the following 2
UT days (17, 18 August).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 11101012
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Culgoora 3 11001003
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 1 01001001
Launceston 1 01002001
Hobart 1 01002001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 4 13311000
Mawson 5 12212212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1121 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 8 Quiet, some unsettled periods possible
17 Aug 5 Quiet
18 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 15 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed. During the next
three UT days, 16-18 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels with the possibility of some unsettled
periods on 16 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 15 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild MUF enhancements
as well as depressions were also observed on some low- and mid-latitude
locations. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 16-18 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug -4 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug -4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 15 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also
observed. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over several sites.
MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay mostly near
the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 16-18
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 86300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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