[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 16 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 17 09:31:32 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 16 August. 
The solar disk, visible from the Earthside, is spotless. Very 
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 17-19 
August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 16 August, the solar wind speed 
showed a gradual decrease from 440 km/s to 370 km/s, the total 
IMF (Bt) between 1 nT and 4.3 nT. The north-south component of 
IMF, Bz, varied mostly in the range -3/+3 nT until 0800 UT and 
then stayed close to the normal value on this day. The solar 
wind particle density stayed mostly between 2 ppcc and 6 ppcc 
during this period. The solar wind stream is expected to gradually 
come down to the normal levels though UT day 17 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11222200
      Cocos Island         3   12221100
      Darwin               4   11222200
      Townsville           4   11222200
      Learmonth            5   22222210
      Alice Springs        4   11222200
      Gingin               4   11222210
      Canberra             2   00122100
      Launceston           5   12222211
      Hobart               3   01222200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     3   11131100
      Casey                6   23222210
      Mawson              16   43232125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0010 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug     5    Quiet
18 Aug     5    Quiet
19 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region on UT day 16 August. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next 
three UT days, 16-18 August.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: The maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT day 16 August. Mild MUF enhancements 
as well as depressions were also observed on some low- and mid-latitude 
locations. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days, 17-19 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly 
near predicted monthly values across the Australian region on 
UT day 16 August. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions 
were also observed. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over 
several sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to 
stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three 
UT days, 17-19 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    75600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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