[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 15 09:31:34 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 14 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next three UT days, 15-17 August. There were 
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 14 August, the solar wind speed ranged mostly 
between 430 km/s and 460 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 1 nT 
and 6 nT and IMF north-south component, Bz, varied in the range 
-3/+3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline 
towards its nominal level over the next two UT days (15-16 August).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11121000
      Cocos Island         1   11011000
      Darwin               2   11121001
      Townsville           3   21121001
      Learmonth            2   11021000
      Alice Springs        2   01121000
      Culgoora             2   11121000
      Gingin               2   11121000
      Canberra             3   11131000
      Launceston           4   21132000
      Hobart               3   11131000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   10120000
      Casey                5   23222100
      Mawson               9   32222114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)


Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2213 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug     5    Quiet
16 Aug     5    Quiet
17 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 14 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, 
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed. During the next 
three UT days, 15-17 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at Quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 15-17 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 14 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also 
observed. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over several sites. 
MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay mostly near 
the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 15-17 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    82300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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