[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 11 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 12 09:31:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 11 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 12-14 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 11 August, the solar wind speed ranged between
400 km/s and 480 km/s, gradually decreasing on average. The total
IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 7 nT. The IMF north-south component,
Bz, varied in the range -4/+3 nT and was mainly negative. The
solar wind speed is expected to decrease to its nominal values
during the next UT day, 12 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11123101
Cocos Island 2 01112101
Darwin 3 01113101
Townsville 4 11123101
Learmonth 5 11123102
Alice Springs 4 01123101
Culgoora 4 11123101
Gingin 4 11123101
Canberra 4 01123101
Launceston 8 11134212
Hobart 4 00123102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 8 00135001
Casey 7 23322012
Mawson 22 43332155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3222 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 7 Quiet
13 Aug 7 Quiet
14 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 11 August, mostly Quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity were recorded in the Australian region, with one isolated
Unsettled period. In the Antarctic region, Quiet to Minor Storm
levels were observed. During the next three UT days, 12-14 August,
global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 August. Mildly to moderately
depressed maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for
high-latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 11 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild enhancements were also observed across most regions
during local night. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over
all sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay
mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three UT
days, 12-14 August. However, mild to moderate depressions are
possible for high-latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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