[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 12 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 13 09:31:35 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 12 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 August. There were 
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 12 August, the solar wind speed ranged between 
375 km/s and 390 km/s until around 0800 UT and then gradually 
increased to 462 km/s by 0949 UT. Solar wind speed stayed between 
450 and and 470 km/s for most parts of the remaining day. The 
total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 7 nT. The IMF north-south 
component, Bz, varied in the range -4/+6 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112011
      Cocos Island         2   12111001
      Darwin               4   11212111
      Townsville           4   12122111
      Learmonth            4   11222111
      Alice Springs        3   12112001
      Culgoora             3   11112011
      Gingin               1   11111000
      Canberra             1   01111001
      Launceston           4   12112111
      Hobart               1   01111000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22221011
      Mawson              18   42223116

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1112 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
14 Aug     5    Quiet
15 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 12 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
were recorded in the Australian region. During the next three 
UT days, 13-15 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at Quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 12 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild MUF enhancements 
as well as depressions were also observed in some low- and mid-latitude 
regions. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over several sites. 
MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values 
for the next three UT days, 13-15 August. However, mild to moderate 
depressions are possible for high-latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Aug    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug    -4    Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug    -2    Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug    -2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 12 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also 
observed, mainly in the northern Australian regions. Sporadic 
E occurrences were observed over several sites. MUFs in the Australian 
regions are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days, 13-15 August. However, mild 
to moderate depressions are possible for high-latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 447 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    63100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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