[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 10 Aug 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 11 09:31:36 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 10 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 August. There were 
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 10 August, the solar wind speed reached a 
maximum of 687 km/s at 10/0041 UT then began to gradually decrease 
reaching a minimum of 460 km/s at 10/1644 UT. The solar wind 
is currently varying between 460 and 540 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) varied between 1 nT and 5 nT. The IMF north-south component, 
Bz, varied in the range -5/+3 nT and was mainly negative. The 
solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on the next UT day, 
11 August, due to coronal hole effects, then begin to weaken 
on 12 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21121011
      Cocos Island         2   11021001
      Darwin               3   12121001
      Townsville           5   21221112
      Learmonth            3   21121002
      Alice Springs        2   11120001
      Culgoora             3   11220011
      Gingin               5   21122112
      Canberra             3   21220011
      Launceston           4   21221111
      Hobart               4   21221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     3   11230000
      Casey                8   33221212
      Mawson              22   45332135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              59   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            55   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1112 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug     7    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 10 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, 
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed, with Mawson experiencing 
Active to Minor Storm levels. During the next two UT days, 11-12 
August, global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with Active periods possible for 
11 August due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic activity should 
return to mainly Quiet levels on 13 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 11-13 August. Mildly to moderately 
depressed maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for 
high-latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Aug     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 10 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region. Mild enhancements were also observed across most regions 
during local night. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over 
all sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay 
mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three UT 
days, 11-13 August. However, mild to moderate depressions are 
possible for high-latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 507 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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