[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 09 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 10 09:31:35 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 09 August. 
There are two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, AR 
2746 and AR 2747. Very Low solar activity is expected for the 
next three UT days, 10-12 August. There were no Earth-directed 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 
09 August, the solar wind speed ranged between 470 km/s and 640 
km/s; it was mostly increasing since 09/1650 UT. The total IMF 
(Bt) varied between 4 nT and 7 nT. The IMF north-south component, 
Bz, varied in the range -5/+5 nT without significant periods 
of negative Bz. During to the next UT day, 10 August, the solar 
wind speed is expected to be elevated due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   01122211
      Cocos Island         3   01112211
      Darwin               4   11122211
      Townsville           5   11222212
      Learmonth            5   01222222
      Alice Springs        3   01121211
      Culgoora             4   11122112
      Gingin               4   01121221
      Canberra             3   01122111
      Launceston           6   01232221
      Hobart               4   01132111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   00132111
      Casey               14   23322522
      Mawson              11   12432223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2221 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 09 August, mostly Quiet levels of geomagnetic 
activity were recorded in the Australian region. In Antarctic 
region, mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed. During 
the next three UT days, 10-12 August, global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels. Active 
periods are possible for 10-11 August due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 10-12 August. Mildly to moderately 
depressed maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for 
high-latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Aug    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 09 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region. Mild enhancements were also observed across Northern 
Australian Region during local night. Sporadic E occurrences 
were observed over all sites. MUFs in the Australian regions 
are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values 
for the next three UT days, 10-12 August. However, mild to moderate 
depressions are possible for high-latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 508 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   128000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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