[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 08 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 9 09:31:32 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 08 August. 
There are two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, AR 
2746 and AR 2747. Very Low solar activity is expected for the 
next 3 UT days, 09-11 August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs 
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 08 August, 
the solar wind speed ranged between 420 km/s and 560 km/s. The 
total IMF (Bt) varied between 4 nT and 6 nT. From 8/1150 UT to 
8/1240 UT the solar wind speed increased from 460 km/s to 560 
km/s; the IMF north-south component, Bz, was negative during 
this period and reached -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be moderately elevated during the next UT day, 09 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12224211
      Cocos Island         4   02213100
      Darwin               5   12113111
      Townsville           8   12224211
      Learmonth            7   12224210
      Alice Springs        7   02224210
      Culgoora             5   11123211
      Gingin               6   12223220
      Canberra             3   01113101
      Launceston           7   12124211
      Hobart               6   11114211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   011-----
      Casey                9   23333111
      Mawson              16   43432224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2311 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug     7    Quiet
10 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 08 August, mostly Quiet levels of geomagnetic 
activity were recorded in the Australian region. There was one 
isolated period when geomagnetic activity reached active levels, 
this corresponded with an increase in the solar wind speed and 
negative Bz, which reached -6 nT. In Antarctic region, Quiet 
to Active levels were observed. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels during UT day 09 August. 
On 10-11 August, Unsettled levels and isolated active periods 
are possible due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 09-11 August. Mildly to moderately depressed 
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for high-latitude 
regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Aug    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 08 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region. Mild enhancements were also observed during local night. 
Sporadic E occurrences were observed over all sites. MUFs in 
the Australian regions are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days, 09-11 August. However, 
mild to moderate depressions are possible for high-latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 511 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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