[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 07 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 8 09:31:26 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 07 August.
There are two numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR 2746
and AR 2747. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next
3 UT days, 08-10 August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 07 August, the
solar wind speed ranged between 460 km/s and 600 km/s, gradually
decreasing on average. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT
and 5 nT without significant periods of negative Bz. The solar
wind speed is expected to be moderately elevated during the next
UT day, 8 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Cocos Island 2 11100201
Darwin 3 21101111
Townsville 4 22111112
Learmonth 5 22102212
Alice Springs 2 21001111
Culgoora 2 11111101
Gingin 4 22011212
Canberra 2 21011101
Launceston 4 22112111
Hobart 3 21012111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 21111000
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 29 34452246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 4323 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 7 Quiet
09 Aug 7 Quiet
10 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 07 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region; in Antarctic region,
mostly Quiet to Active levels were observed. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels during UT days
08 and 09 August. On 10 August Unsettled levels are possible
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 08-10 August. Mildly to moderately depressed
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for high-latitude
region.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 07 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild enhancements were observed in the Southern Australian
Region during local night. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
over all sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to
stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days, 08-10 August. However, mild to moderate depressions
are possible for high-latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 656 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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