[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 August 19 issued 2333 UT on 01 Aug 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 2 09:33:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 01 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days, 02-04 August. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
On UT day 01 August, the solar wind speed increased in the first
half of the UT day to between 500-570 km/s, then began to gradually
decrease, currently around 490 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) decreased
at the start of the UT day to vary between 1-5 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to continue to weaken on UT day 02 August,
as the influence of a recurrent negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole wanes, returning to background levels on 03 August.
The solar wind is expected to become enhanced again, either late
on UT day 04 August or on 05 August, due to a positive polarity
trans-equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 21110012
Cocos Island 3 21000122
Darwin 3 22110012
Townsville 4 31110012
Learmonth 5 31110023
Alice Springs 2 21100012
Culgoora 3 21111012
Gingin 5 31100123
Canberra 3 21111012
Launceston 4 22111112
Hobart 3 21111012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 11011001
Casey 8 33210123
Mawson 28 54431146
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 3231 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 6 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 4 Quiet
04 Aug 8 Quiet, with a chance of Unsettled to Active levels
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded
in the Australian region on UT day 01 August, with some sites
observing Unsettled periods at the start and end of the UT day.
Mainly Quiet to Active levels were observed in the Antarctic
region, with Mawson experiencing isolated Minor Storm periods.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
for the next UT day, 02 August, due to the waning effects of
a recurrent equatorial coronal hole, decreasing to Quiet levels
on UT day 03 August. Conditions may increase to Unsettled to
Active levels late on UT day 04 August, depending on the arrival
of high speed streams from a trans-equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 02-04 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on
UT day 01 August, with moderate enhancements during the local
night over most sites. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are
expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for
the next three UT days, 02 to 04 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 195000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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