[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 31 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 1 09:31:33 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 31 July. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days, 01-03 August. There were no 
Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
On UT day 31 July, the solar wind speed was moderate, mainly 
between 440-500 km/s, increasing to 500-530 km/s at times. The 
total IMF (Bt) reached a maximum of 10.12 nT at 31/1532 UT and 
is currently varying between 6-9 nT. The north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) varied between -6 to +9 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to remain enhanced on UT day 01 August due to the 
influence of a recurrent negative polarity equatorial coronal 
hole, then begin to weaken on 02 August, returning to background 
levels on 03 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21210011
      Cocos Island         3   21210111
      Darwin               4   21220111
      Townsville           5   31220111
      Learmonth            5   31220111
      Alice Springs        4   22220011
      Culgoora             3   21211011
      Gingin               4   31210012
      Canberra             3   22211001
      Launceston           4   22211011
      Hobart               2   21211000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   01201000
      Casey               10   43321112
      Mawson              19   43431135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   1110 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods
02 Aug     7    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were 
recorded in the Australian region on UT day 31 July. Mainly Quiet 
to Active levels were observed in the Antarctic region, with 
Mawson experiencing an isolated Minor Storm period. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with 
a chance of isolated Active periods, for the next UT day, 01 
August, due to the effects of a recurrent equatorial coronal 
hole, decreasing to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 02 and 03 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 01-03 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jul    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on 
UT day 31 July, with moderate enhancements during the local night 
over most sites. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed 
over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are expected 
to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next 
three UT days, 01 to 03 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    40300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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