[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 19 issued 2347 UT on 02 Aug 2019

Sat Aug 3 09:47:34 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 02 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days, 03-05 August. There were no 
Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
On UT day 02 August, the solar wind speed gradually decreased 
from around 500 km/s to currently around 395 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) varied between 0-4 nT. The north-south component of 
the IMF (Bz) varied between +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to continue to weaken on UT day 03 August, as the influence 
of a recurrent negative polarity equatorial coronal hole wanes. 
The solar wind is expected to become enhanced again, either late 
on UT day 04 August or on 05 August, due to a positive polarity 
trans-equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   11100000
      Alice Springs        0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Gingin               1   11100000
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Launceston           1   11110000
      Hobart               1   10110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00110000
      Casey                4   32111101
      Mawson               6   33221011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   3221 1122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug     4    Quiet
04 Aug    10    Quiet to Active
05 Aug    23    Unsettled to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region on UT day 02 August. Quiet to Unsettled 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mainly Quiet on UT day 03 August. 
Conditions are expected to increase to Unsettled to Active levels 
late on UT day 04 August, followed by Unsettled to Minor Storm 
levels on UT 05 August, due to the forecast arrival of high speed 
streams from a trans-equatorial coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Aug    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on 
UT day 02 August, with moderate enhancements during the local 
night over most sites. The Northern Australian region experienced 
minor depressions during the local day. Sporadic-E and Spread-F 
occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ 
regions are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days, 03 to 05 August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.9E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 519 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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