[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 28 Apr 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 29 09:30:20 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 28 April. There 
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the 
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the 
next 3 UT days, 29 April - 1 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 28 April, 
the solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 400 km/s, currently 
near 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2 nT 
and 5 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in 
the range -4/+3 nT without significant periods of negative Bz. 
For the next UT day, 29 April, the solar wind speed is expected 
to be mostly at background levels and can reach moderately elevated 
levels due to minor coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101111
      Cocos Island         1   10001111
      Darwin               2   11101111
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Learmonth            3   10102112
      Alice Springs        2   01101111
      Culgoora             3   11111111
      Gingin               3   10102121
      Canberra             1   10101110
      Launceston           4   11212111
      Hobart               3   10212111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   10211001
      Casey                5   22211211
      Mawson              11   22211225
      Davis                7   22320---

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1022 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr     7    Quiet
30 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 May    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 28 April. Mostly Quiet levels were 
observed in Antarctica on UT day 28 April. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
for 29-30 April. On 1 May geomagnetic activity is expected to 
increase and can reach active levels due to effects associated 
with a recurrent coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over 
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted 
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 29 April 
- 1 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Apr    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
01 May     3    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during 
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Sporadic E layers were 
observed over most Australian region. Mostly normal HF conditions 
and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the next three 
UT days, 29 April to 1 May, in the Australian/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    39500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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