[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 27 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 28 09:30:22 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 27 April. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 28-30 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 27 April, the
solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 400 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 6 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -3/+1 nT and was
southward between 27/0600 UT and 27/1000 UT. For the next UT
day, 28 April, the solar wind speed is expected to be mostly
at background levels and can reach moderately elevated levels
due to minor coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 10232121
Cocos Island 3 10121121
Darwin 5 10232111
Townsville 5 10232112
Learmonth 5 10231122
Alice Springs 5 10232021
Culgoora 4 10232011
Gingin 6 10222132
Canberra 4 00232011
Launceston 6 10242111
Hobart 4 10232011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 00352000
Casey 5 21221122
Mawson 23 31233165
Davis 11 21322243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1222 2010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Apr 7 Quiet
30 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet levels across
the Australian region on UT day 27 April, with a brief Unsettled
period between 27/0900 UT and 27/1200 UT. Mostly at Quiet to
Active levels were observed in Antarctica on UT day 27 April.
The observed disturbed conditions are a combined effect of slightly
enhanced solar wind speed and the prolonged period of Southward
IMF Bz condition. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly at Quiet levels for 28-30 April. Isolated Unsettled
periods are possible for 28 April due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 28-30 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Minor depressions were
also observed in Northern Australian region during local day.
Sporadic E layers were observed over most Australian region.
Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are
expected for the next three UT days, 28-30 April, in the Australian/NZ
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40e+06 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 58300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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