[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 26 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 27 09:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 26 April. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 27-29 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 26 April, the
solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 430 km/s, gradually
decreasing on average, currently near 350 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 5 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -4/+2 nT without
significant periods of negative Bz. For the next UT day, 27 April,
the solar wind speed is expected to be mostly at background levels
and can reach moderately elevated levels due to minor coronal
hole effects. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 24/0500UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 00011111
Cocos Island 1 00001111
Darwin 1 10000111
Townsville 2 11011111
Learmonth 2 10101112
Alice Springs 1 00000111
Culgoora 1 00011111
Gingin 3 00001222
Canberra 1 00011100
Launceston 1 00011111
Hobart 1 00011110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00022100
Casey 5 22211212
Mawson 16 30101246
Davis 6 10111332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1222 2010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr 7 Quiet
29 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region and mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels in
Antarctica on UT day 26 April. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for 27-29 April. Isolated
Unsettled periods are possible for 27 April due to minor coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over
the last 24 hours. Minor to moderate depressions were also observed
at low latitudes during local day. Mostly normal HF conditions
and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the next three
UT days, 27-29 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Minor depressions were
also observed in Northern Australian region during local day.
Sporadic E layers were observed across the entire Australian
region. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 April, in
the Australian/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 73700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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