[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 25 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 26 09:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 25 April. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 26-28 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 25 April, the
solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 450 km/s, currently
near 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 1 nT
and 7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
in the range -6/+6 nT without significant periods of negative
Bz. For the next UT day, 26 April, the solar wind speed is expected
to vary between its background levels and moderately elevated
ones. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 24/0500UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 12222000
Cocos Island 3 12211010
Darwin 4 12221011
Townsville 5 22222011
Learmonth 4 12222010
Alice Springs 4 12222001
Culgoora 3 12221000
Gingin 3 12221000
Canberra 2 11122000
Launceston 3 12122001
Hobart 3 12122000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
Macquarie Island 5 01043000
Casey 9 34322001
Mawson 12 23332124
Davis 9 23342100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3112 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 7 Quiet
27 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region and at Quiet to Active levels in Antarctica
on UT day 25 April. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly at Quiet levels for 26-28 April. Isolated Unsettled
periods are possible for 27 April due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced levels over
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 26-28 April.
Moderately elevated MUFs are also likely for 26 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Minor depressions were
also observed in Southern Australian region during local day.
Sporadic E layers were observed across the entire Australian
region. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 26-28 April, in
the Australian/NZ regions. Moderately elevated MUFs are also
likely for 26 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 48800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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