[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 24 09:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 23 April. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 24-26 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 23 April, the
solar wind speed stayed mostly between 330 km/s and 410 km/s,
currently near 410 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between
5 nT and 11 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied in the range -8/+6 nT without significant periods of negative
Bz. For the next two UT days, 24-25 April, the solar wind speed
is expected to be mostly at moderately elevated levels due to
high speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal
hole in the southern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11010132
Cocos Island 3 11000031
Darwin 4 11100132
Townsville 4 11010132
Learmonth 4 11110132
Alice Springs 2 10000122
Culgoora 2 01010122
Gingin 3 11001222
Canberra 2 00010122
Launceston 5 11011133
Hobart 3 11011122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00011021
Casey 5 23101122
Mawson 13 31110254
Davis 12 12111254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1020 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region and at Quiet to Minor Storm levels
in Antarctica on UT day 23 April. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 24-26
April. Isolated active periods are possible for 24 April. The
expected increase in the geomagnetic activity is due to effects
associated with a recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels over the last 24
hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 24-26 April. Moderately
elevated MUFs are likely for 24-25 April due to predicted increase
in the geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during the last
24 hours for Australian region. Mostly normal HF conditions and
near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT
days, 24-26 April, in the Australian/NZ regions. Moderately elevated
MUFs are likely for 24-25 April due to predicted increase in
the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 54900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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