[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 23 09:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 22 April. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 23-25 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 22 April, the
solar wind speed stayed mostly between 350 km/s and 400 km/s,
currently at 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between
3 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
in the range -5/+4 nT. For the next UT day, 23 April, the solar
wind speed is expected to be near its nominal levels with some
possibility of slight strengthening due to high speed solar wind
streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 0 00100010
Cocos Island 1 01100100
Darwin 1 10100011
Townsville 1 10101011
Learmonth 1 00111010
Alice Springs 0 00100010
Culgoora 0 00100010
Gingin 1 00100110
Canberra 0 00100000
Launceston 2 11101120
Hobart 1 00101010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00001010
Casey 5 32221100
Mawson 5 11212113
Davis 4 12222200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1131 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region and in Antarctica on UT day 22 April. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 23-25 24 April. The expected increase in the geomagnetic
activity is due to effects associated with a negative polarity
recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to significantly enhanced over the last 24 hours.
Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are
expected for the next three UT days, 23-25 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to significantly enhanced during the last 24 hours
for Australian region. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 23-25 April,
in the Australian/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 30600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list