[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 21 Apr 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 22 09:30:20 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 21 April. There 
is currently only one numbered sunspot region (2739) on the solar 
disk visible from the Earthside. This region was located at N07W82 
at 2255UT. On UT day 21 April, the solar wind speed stayed mostly 
between 340 km/s and 360 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 3 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) varied in the range +5/-3.5 nT. The solar wind is expected 
to be near its nominal levels with some possibility of slight 
strengthening in the solar wind stream on 23 and 24 April due 
to the effect of a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Solar 
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days 
(22-24 April).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10110000
      Cocos Island         1   10110000
      Darwin               1   10110001
      Townsville           2   21011011
      Alice Springs        0   10010000
      Gingin               0   01100000
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           1   11111000
      Hobart               1   10011000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                4   23211000
      Mawson              10   43112033
      Davis                2   12211000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1100 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr     5    Quiet
23 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 21 April. Global geomagnetic conditions 
may be expected to stay at quiet levels on 22 April. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 
23 and 24 April due to the effect of a negative polarity coronal 
hole in the southern hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly 
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over 
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted 
monthly MUFs may be expected for the next three UT days (April 
22 to 24).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr     4    Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr     4    Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr     4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly 
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over 
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Mostly normal HF conditions 
and near predicted monthly MUFs may be expected for the next 
three UT days (April 22 to 24) in the Australian/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    25500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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