[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 18 Apr 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 19 09:30:18 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 18 April, with 
no notable flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot regions 
on the solar disk visible from the Earth, region 2738 located 
at N07W77 and region 2739 located at N05W34 (at 22:45UT/18 April). 
On UT day 18 April, the solar wind speed stayed mostly between 
300 km/s and 330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 
2 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
in the range +4/-2 nT. The outlook for the next three UT days 
(19-21 April) is for the solar wind to be near its nominal levels 
with some possibility of periods of slight strengthenings in 
the solar wind stream on 19 and 20 April due to the effect of 
a positive polarity polar coronal hole. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days (19-21 April) with 
a remote chance for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000010
      Cocos Island         1   11000010
      Darwin               0   10000010
      Townsville           1   10000011
      Learmonth            0   00000010
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00000010
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   10100011
      Mawson               3   00000033
      Davis                5   00011024

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
20 Apr     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
21 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 18 April. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic 
conditions may be expected from 19 to 21 April (UT days) with 
some possibility of isolated unsettled conditions on 19 and 20 
April due to the effect of a positive polarity polar coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly 
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over 
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted 
monthly MUFs may be expected for the next three UT days (April 
19 to 21).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Apr    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr     4    Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr     4    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr     4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly 
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over 
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Mostly normal HF conditions 
and near predicted monthly MUFs may be expected for the next 
three UT days (April 19 to 21) in the Australian/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    26200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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