[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 17 Apr 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 18 09:30:18 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              74/11              72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 17 April, with 
no notable flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot regions 
on the solar disk visible from the Earth, region 2738 located 
at N06W57 and region 2739 located at N06W21 (at 2225UT/17 April). 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery. 
On UT day 17 April, the solar wind speed stayed mostly between 
340 km/s and 365 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 
1 nT and 4 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
in the range +3/-2 nT. The outlook for the next three UT days 
(18-20 April) is for the solar wind to be near its nominal levels 
with some possibility of periods of slight strengthenings in 
the solar wind stream on 19 and 20 April due to the effect of 
a positive polarity polar coronal hole. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days (18-20 April) with 
a remote chance for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10000011
      Cocos Island         1   11100010
      Darwin               0   10100000
      Townsville           1   11000011
      Learmonth            2   11100021
      Alice Springs        0   00000010
      Gingin               1   10000021
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Launceston           2   11000012
      Hobart               0   00000011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                5   23210021
      Mawson              14   22010163
      Davis               10   13120152

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2232 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr     5    Quiet
19 Apr     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
20 Apr     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 17 April. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic 
conditions may be expected from 18 to 20 April (UT days) with 
some possibility of isolated unsettled conditions on 19 and 20 
April due to the effect of a positive polarity polar coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly 
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over 
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted 
monthly MUFs may be expected for the next three UT days (April 
18 to 20).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Apr     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly 
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over 
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Mostly normal HF conditions 
and near predicted monthly MUFs may be expected for the next 
three UT days (April 18 to 20) in the Australian/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    38300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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