[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 16 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 17 09:30:23 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 16 April, with
no notable flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk, region 2738 which is located at N06W43
(at 2235UT/16April). No Earth directed CMEs were observed in
the available imagery. On UT day 16 April, the solar wind speed
varied from 340 km/s to 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly
between 2 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) varied in the range +/-4 nT. The outlook for the next two
UT days (17-18 April) is for the solar wind to be near its nominal
levels. Slight strengthening in the solar wind stream may be
possible on UT day 19 April due to the effect of a positive polarity
polar coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to remain Very
Low for the next 3 UT days (17-19 April) with a remote chance
for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21213000
Cocos Island 3 11211011
Darwin 3 22212000
Townsville 4 21213001
Learmonth 5 21223011
Alice Springs 3 21212000
Gingin 5 21213021
Canberra 4 11223000
Launceston 6 22323000
Hobart 5 12323000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 11413000
Casey 9 33223112
Mawson 20 24331155
Davis 13 34322124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1132 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region on UT day 16 April. Mostly quiet
global geomagnetic conditions may be expected from 17 to 19 April
(UT days) with some possibility of isolated unsettled conditions
on 19 April due to the effect of a positive polarity polar coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over
the last 24 hours. Some periods of minor MUF depressions were
also observed in some mid-latitude areas. Mostly normal HF conditions
and near predicted monthly MUFs may be expected for the next
three UT days (April 17 to 19).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Some periods of minor
MUF depressions were also observed in the northern and southern
Australian regions. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs may be expected for the next three UT days (April
17 to 19) in the Australian/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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