[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 16 09:30:22 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 15 April, with
no notable flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk, Region 2738 which is located at N06W30
(at 2305UT/15April). Solar activity is expected to remain Very
Low for the next 3 UT days (16-18 April) with a remote chance
for C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available imagery. On UT day 16 April, the solar wind speed initially
increased from 320 km/s to 360 km/s by 0800 UT and then stayed
around 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT
and 8 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) initially
stayed negative (between -3 and -6 nT) by 0500UT and then varied
between +/-6 nT during the rest of the UT day. The outlook for
next two UT days (16-18 April) is for the solar wind to be near
its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 11222121
Cocos Island 3 01111221
Darwin 5 11222122
Townsville 5 11222221
Learmonth 7 11222232
Alice Springs 5 11222121
Gingin 5 10112232
Canberra 4 00222121
Launceston 6 11322121
Hobart 4 10222121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 00232010
Casey 8 22321232
Mawson 23 32321365
Davis 8 12322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1220 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 5 Quiet
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across Australian region stayed
at quiet levels on UT day 15 April. Similar levels of global
geomagnetic activity may be expected from 16 to 18 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies ranged from mostly near predicted
monthly values to significantly enhanced over the last 24 hours.
Some periods of minor depressions were also observed in some
mid-latitude areas. Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs may be
expected for the next three UT days (April 16 - 18).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies ranged from mostly near predicted
monthly values to significantly enhanced over the last 24 hours
for Australian and Antarctic Region. Some periods of minor depressions
were also observed in the Australian regions. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs may be expected for the next three UT days (April
16 - 18) in the Australian/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 21400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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