[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 15 09:30:18 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 14 Apr, with 
no notable flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region 
on the visible solar disk, Region 2738 which is located at N06W17. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 
UT days (15-17 April) with a remote chance for C-class flares. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery. 
The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours decreased from 
390 km/s to 310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 
3 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between 
+1 nT and -3 nT and mostly remained weakly southward during the 
UT day. The outlook for next two UT days (15-16 April) is for 
the solar wind to be near its nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100100
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Townsville           2   12110101
      Learmonth            2   12000101
      Alice Springs        1   01100100
      Gingin               1   11100101
      Canberra             1   01100100
      Launceston           3   12210200
      Hobart               2   11200100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   11200000
      Casey                6   23211212
      Mawson              11   22221035
      Davis               11   13222115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2310 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr     5    Quiet
16 Apr     5    Quiet
17 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for 
the AUS/NZ regions on UT day 14 April. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
levels were observed in Antarctica . Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected for AUS/NZ region for next three UT days 
(15-17 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across all latitudes 
on 14 April. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, UT 
day 15 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Apr     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies ranged from mostly near predicted 
monthly values to slightly enhanced ones over the last 24 hours 
for Australian and Antarctic Region. Mostly near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days (April 15 - 17)

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    74500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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