[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 14 09:30:22 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 13 Apr. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, Region 2738 currently at N06W04 and was the source of several
B-class flares over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days (14-16 April) with
a remote chance for C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed ranged
between 390 km/s and 460 km/s over the UT day and is currently
near 400 km/s at the time of this report. The total IMF (Bt)
varied between 2 nT and 7 nT. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -3 nT without any notable sustained
southward Bz periods. The outlook for today (UT day 14 April)
is for the solar wind to be near its nominal to weakly elevated
levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22112011
Cocos Island 2 21100010
Darwin 3 22111011
Townsville 4 22212011
Learmonth 4 21112021
Alice Springs 4 22112011
Gingin 4 21112021
Canberra 3 22112010
Launceston 4 22112011
Hobart 3 12112011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 12112000
Casey 11 34322122
Mawson 27 54221165
Davis 23 43332164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3120 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 7 Quiet
15 Apr 7 Quiet
16 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for
the AUS/NZ regions on 13 Apr. Mostly Quiet to Active levels were
observed in Antarctica with brief Active to Minor Storm periods.
Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions are expected for AUS/NZ
region for next three UT days (14-16 April).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values across all latitudes
were observed on 13 Apr. Similar HF conditions are expected for
the next UT day, 14 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies ranged from near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced ones over the last 24 hours
for Australian and Antarctic Region. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days (April 14 - 16)
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 87100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list