[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 20 09:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 19 April, with
no notable flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk visible from the Earth, region 2738 and region
2739. On UT day 19 April, the solar wind speed stayed mostly
between 310 km/s and 330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly
between 1 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) varied in the range +6/-4 nT. The outlook for the next three
UT days (20-22 April) is for the solar wind to be near its nominal
levels with some possibility of periods of slight strengthenings
in the solar wind stream on 20 April due to the effect of a positive
polarity polar coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days (20-22 April) with a remote chance
for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11221110
Cocos Island 3 11121110
Darwin 4 11221121
Townsville 5 12221121
Learmonth 4 11321110
Alice Springs 3 00221111
Gingin 3 10211120
Canberra 2 00211010
Launceston 3 01212111
Hobart 2 01211010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00012000
Casey 5 23320010
Mawson 4 11221210
Davis 4 12222110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0000 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
21 Apr 5 Quiet
22 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 19 April. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic
conditions may be expected from 20 to 22 April (UT days) with
some possibility of isolated unsettled conditions on 20 April
due to the effect of a positive polarity polar coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over
the last 24 hours. Some periods of minor MUF depressions were
also observed in some mid-latitude areas. Mostly normal HF conditions
and near predicted monthly MUFs may be expected for the next
three UT days (April 20 to 22).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly
near predicted monthly values to significantly enhanced over
the last 24 hours for Australian region. Some periods of minor
MUF depressions were also observed in the Northern Aus region.
Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs may
be expected for the next three UT days (April 20 to 22) in the
Australian/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 21500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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