[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 April 19 issued 2339 UT on 11 Apr 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 12 09:39:09 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 11Apr. There is currently 
one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk, Region 
2738(N06E21) which was the source of a B1.2 event at 1723UT. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery. 
The solar wind speed ranged between 393km/s and 458km/s over 
the UT day and is currently 435km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +2 nT 
and -4 nT without any notable sustained southward Bz periods. 
Slight chance of solar wind speed enhancements over the next 
24 hours due to minor coronal hole effects. Solar activity is 
expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days with only slight 
chance for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222201
      Darwin               5   22222201
      Townsville           7   22232211
      Learmonth            6   22222300
      Alice Springs        5   21222201
      Culgoora             5   22222200
      Gingin               4   21222200
      Canberra             4   12222200
      Launceston           6   12232211
      Hobart               5   12222201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     7   11142300
      Casey               12   33432301
      Mawson              15   44333311
      Davis               59   33942201

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   4431 2331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr     9    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr     7    Quiet
14 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for the AUS/NZ 
regions 11Apr with Unsettled to Quiet conditions observed for 
Antarctic regions with brief Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions are expected for AUS/NZ region 12Apr and mostly Quiet 
conditions expected for 13Apr-14Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values across all latitudes 
on 11Apr, with slightly enhanced conditions for Low latitudes 
and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for High latitudes. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr    10    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Apr    10    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Apr    10    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies ranged from near monthly predicted 
values to slightly enhanced over the last 24 hours for Equatorial, 
Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Periods of disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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