[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 April 19 issued 2332 UT on 10 Apr 2019

Thu Apr 11 09:32:44 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 10 April, with only 
B class flares. There are currently one numbered sunspot region 
on the visible solar disk. Active Region 2738 is currently located 
near N06E35 and is moving towards the solar center. Solar activity 
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 11-13 
Apr, with a remote chance for C-class flares due the flaring 
potential of Region 2738. A CME first seen in the LASCO coronograph 
imagery triggering at 10/1600 UT is a far side event on the East 
limb and therefore will not impact Earth. The solar wind speed 
during the last 24 hours was mostly steady near 450 km/s. These 
mildly elevated solar winds are thought to be caused by small 
patching coronal holes. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 5 nT 
and 8 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between 
+8 nT and -8 nT, and was significantly southward during the first 
4 hours of the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly 
near its nominal to weakly enhanced levels for the next two UT 
days (11-12 April).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22212321
      Darwin               8   32212321
      Townsville           8   32212321
      Learmonth            7   22212321
      Alice Springs        6   22212320
      Culgoora             7   22212321
      Gingin               9   23212331
      Canberra             8   22312321
      Launceston          11   23313331
      Hobart              11   23313331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    11   23403330
      Casey               12   33422322
      Mawson              28   44322555
      Davis               22   33432552

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   4132 2223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr     7    Quiet
13 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed for the AUS/NZ on UT day 10 April. Unsettled to Active 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed 
disturbed conditions are a combined effect of the Earth currently 
being under the influence of slightly enhanced solar wind streams 
emanating from small coronal holes and the prolonged period of 
Southward IMF Bz condition. Today UT day 11 April, the global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels 
and at times may reach Unsettled levels. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected from UT 12 April.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 10 April, mostly normal HF conditions were 
observed over all regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 
over the next three UT days (11-13 April).

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Apr     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Apr     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted to slightly enhanced MUFs 
were observed for 10 April over the Australian and Antarctic 
region. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days 
(11-13 April).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:    90400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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