[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 09 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 10 09:30:30 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Apr             11 Apr             12 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 09 April, with only 
B class flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot regions 
on the visible solar disk. The more active Region 2738 (N06E49) 
is rotating towards the solar central meridian, whereas the less 
active region AR2737 (N12W75) will soon rotate to the far side 
of the sun. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for 
the next 3 UT days, 10-12 Apr, with a remote chance for C-class 
flares due the flaring potential of Region 2738. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronograph imagery. The 
solar wind speed during the last 24 hours ranged between 400 
km/s and 450 km/s. These mildly elevated solar winds are thought 
to be caused by small patching coronal holes. The total IMF (Bt) 
ranged between 5 nT and 9 nT. The north-south component of the 
IMF (Bz) ranged between +6 nT and -5 nT, and predominately remained 
southward. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its 
nominal to weakly enhanced levels for the next two UT days (10-11 
April).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21321311
      Darwin               5   21211311
      Townsville           7   32321211
      Learmonth            8   31222321
      Alice Springs        5   22221211
      Culgoora             6   21321211
      Gingin               6   21221321
      Canberra             6   21321211
      Launceston           9   32322312
      Hobart               7   21322311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    12   21433331
      Casey               13   34422222
      Mawson              16   43333333
      Davis               13   33432232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10   2422 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed for the AUS/NZ on UT day 09 April. Unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed 
conditions are a combined effect of the Earth currently being 
under the influence of slightly enhanced solar wind streams emanating 
from small coronal holes and the prolonged period of Southward 
IMF Bz condition. During the next 2 UT days, 10-11 April, the 
global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet 
levels and at times may reach Unsettled levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 09 April, mostly normal HF conditions were 
observed over all regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 
over the next three UT days (10-12 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Apr     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Apr     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Apr     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Apr     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted to slightly enhanced MUFs 
were observed for 09 April over the Australian and Antarctic 
region. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days 
(10-12 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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