[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 September 18 issued 2339 UT on 19 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 20 09:39:21 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery 
and the visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed was 479km/s 
at 00UT, reaching a maximum of 503km/s at 0145UT before it began 
a slow decline to be 397km/s at the time of this report. The 
north south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +4nT and 
-3nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline 
towards ambient levels for 20-21Sep. An increase in solar wind 
is expected on 22Sep due to the anticipated arrival of a high 
speed solar wind stream from an equatorial located coronal hole 
that crossed the central meridian today. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11210100
      Cocos Island         2   11200100
      Darwin               2   11210101
      Townsville           3   12210111
      Learmonth            2   11210100
      Alice Springs        2   11200101
      Culgoora             2   01210100
      Gingin               2   11210100
      Canberra             2   01210100
      Launceston           3   12220100
      Hobart               2   11210100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   01210000
      Casey                9   34410100
      Mawson               9   44221002
      Davis                5   23321000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3222 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     5    Quiet
21 Sep     5    Quiet
22 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the Australian 
region for 19Sep with occasional Active periods for Antarctic 
regions in the first half of the UT day. Mostly Quiet conditions 
expected for the next 2 days. Initially Quiet with Unsettled 
to Active conditions expected for 22Sep due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies near predicted monthly values 
for 19Sep across all latitudes, with minor depressions observed 
at low latitudes and notable periods of disturbed ionospheric 
support at high latitudes. Similar HF conditions are expected 
over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Sep    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions 
observed over the last 24 hours and occasional disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 
over the next 3 days with possible minor MUF depressions for 
low latitude stations and periods of poor ionospheric support 
at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 499 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list