[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 September 18 issued 2343 UT on 18 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 19 09:43:27 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery 
and the visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed was ~530km/s 
during the first hour of the UT day and has gradually declined 
to be ~480km/s at the time of this report. The north south component 
of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-4nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to continue to decline towards ambient levels over the 
next 12-24 hours due to the waning influence of a high speed 
solar wind stream from an equatorial located negative polarity 
coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low 
levels for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21131101
      Cocos Island         3   2212010-
      Darwin               4   2113010-
      Townsville           5   2123110-
      Learmonth            6   2223210-
      Alice Springs        4   1123010-
      Culgoora             3   11131001
      Gingin               6   3113110-
      Canberra             3   1113100-
      Launceston           6   22232011
      Hobart               4   12132001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    10   1135200-
      Casey               12   3443110-
      Mawson              15   3444111-
      Davis                9   23431111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   33222233    


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep     7    Quiet
20 Sep     6    Quiet
21 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the Australian region for 18Sep with occasional Active periods 
for Antarctic regions in the first half of the UT day. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days due to the declining 
influence of recurrent coronal hole effects on the solar wind.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies near predicted monthly values 
for 18Sep across all latitudes with disturbed ionospheric support 
observed at high latitudes during the latter half of the UT day. 
Similar HF conditions are expected over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Sep     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the Australian/NZ 
region during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric support 
for some Equatorial stations and disturbed ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions during the latter half of the UT day. Similar 
HF conditions are expected over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:   10.6 p/cc  Temp:   214000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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