[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 September 18 issued 2353 UT on 17 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Sep 18 09:53:27 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. 
Solar wind speed has gradually increased from ~380km/s at 00UT 
to be ~530km/s at the time of this report. This increase is due 
to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from an equatorial 
located negative polarity coronal hole that crossed the central 
meridian on the 14Sep. The north south component of the IMF (Bz) 
was predominantly northward, with occasional southward excursions 
reaching -7nT over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain elevated over the next 24-36 hours. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days 
as the visible disk remains spotless.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222222
      Cocos Island         5   22211221
      Darwin               7   32222212
      Townsville           8   32222222
      Learmonth            8   32222231
      Alice Springs        7   22222222
      Culgoora             6   22222122
      Gingin               7   22221231
      Canberra             6   22221222
      Launceston           8   22322222
      Hobart               5   22221211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     5   22221211
      Casey               17   35432223
      Mawson              29   54322265
      Davis               30   34332266

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         No data available
           Planetary              No data available

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep    15    Quiet to Unsettled, possible Active periods
19 Sep     7    Quiet
20 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
Australian region for 17Sep. Unsettled with occasional Active 
periods for Antarctic regions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
expected for 18Sep with possible Active periods should elevated 
solar wind speeds from the recurrent coronal hole continue to 
increase and southward Bz conditions eventuate. Mostly Quiet 
conditions expected 19Sep-20Sep.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed 17Sep with 
notable enhancements at low latitudes. Disturbed ionospheric 
support observed at high latitudes. Similar HF conditions are 
expected over the next 3 days UT days with possible MUF depressions 
for mid latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Sep     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the Australian/NZ 
region during the last 24 hours with minor enhancements observed 
at Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Disturbed 
ionospheric support for antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected during the next 3 days with possible depressed MUFs 
for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions 18-19Sep along with 
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    61500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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