[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 9 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day,8 Sep, with
no solar flares. A small sunspot region 2721(N10W08), magnetically
simple was numbered over the period. For the next three UT days,
9-11 Sep, solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery.
During the UT day, 8 Sep the solar wind speed showed waning effect
of a small negative polarity coronal hole, currently near 350km/s.
The total IMF Bt ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT during the past
24 hours. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +/-3
nT. The outlook for the next two days, 9-10 Sep is for the solar
wind speed to be at its nominal levels. From UT day 11 Sep, the
solar wind is expected to increase again in response to an approaching
positive polarity coronal hole. The STEREO A satellite experienced
solar winds of near 650 km/s associated with this coronal hole,
similar solar wind strengths are expected at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11311101
Cocos Island 2 10210101
Darwin 4 11311101
Townsville 5 21311112
Learmonth 4 11311201
Alice Springs 3 01311101
Culgoora 4 11311111
Gingin 2 10200111
Canberra 3 11301001
Launceston 5 21311111
Hobart 2 10201101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00101000
Casey 5 23201112
Mawson 6 32110132
Davis 5 22321110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2101 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 7 Quiet
10 Sep 7 Quiet
11 Sep 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region during the UT day 8 Sep. Mainly Quiet levels of magnetic
activity over the next two UT days, 9-10 Sep as the solar wind
is expected to be at nominal values. Quiet to Active with a chance
of occasional Minor Storm conditions are expected on 11 Sep in
response to CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent
equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
8 Sep. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values are expected
for the next three UT days (9-11 Sep).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 216000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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