[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 September 18 issued 2346 UT on 09 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 10 09:46:47 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Sep             11 Sep             12 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day,9 Sep, with 
no solar flares. There is currently one small magnetically simple 
sunspot region 2721(N10W22) on the visible solar disk. For the 
next three UT days, 10-12 Sep, solar activity is expected to 
remain at Very Low levels. SDO imagery observed a prominence 
eruption of the SW limb around 0800UT, however significant data 
gap in satellite imagery around this time makes definitive analysis 
difficult. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours was 
mostly near the nominal level of 380 Km/s. The total IMF Bt ranged 
between 2 nT and 7 nT during the past 24 hours. The Bz component 
of IMF varied mostly between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speed is expected 
to remain at its current ambient level until the arrival of CIR 
and HSS associated with a recurrent equatorial positive polarity 
coronal hole later today, 10 Sep early tomorrow, 11 Sep. The 
STEREO A satellite experienced solar winds of near 650 km/s associated 
with this coronal hole, similar solar wind strengths are expected 
at Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112122
      Cocos Island         4   11111221
      Darwin               5   11112222
      Townsville           5   11112222
      Learmonth            6   11222222
      Alice Springs        4   11112122
      Culgoora             4   11112122
      Gingin               3   10111122
      Canberra             4   11111122
      Launceston           4   11111122
      Hobart               3   11111022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000011
      Casey                6   23210122
      Mawson              18   42212136
      Davis               10   23312024

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1021 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Sep    20    Quiet Active with possible isolated Minor Storm 
                periods.
11 Sep    30    Active to Minor Storm
12 Sep    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region 
for 09 Sep. Quiet conditions are expected to continue until the 
arrival of CIR ahead of HSS associated with a recurrent equatorial 
positive polarity coronal hole later today,10 Sep. Quiet to Active 
with possible Minor Storm conditions are expected on 10-11 Sep 
and Quiet to Active levels of magnetic activity on 12 Sep.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Poor-fair
12 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Poor-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected today 10 Sep. 
Possible depressed conditions on 11-12 Sep for mid to high latitudes 
due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Sep     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Sep     4    Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
12 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
9 Sep. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values are expected 
today, 10 Sep. Mildly depressed MUFs with occasional disturbed 
ionospheric support for 11-12 Sep due to increased geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    51900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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