[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 8 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day,7 Sep, with
no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 8-10 Sep,
solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind
speed was ~380m/s and began to increase from 0400UT onwards,
reached 520Km/s at 1230UT then gradually decreased to be 430
Km/s at time of this report. The Bz component of IMF was mostly
neutral with a strong positive period up to + 10 nT between 0400-0700
UT while the total IMF Bt increased from 4 nT to 12 nT during
this period. These enhanced solar wind speeds indicate the onset
of a recurrent coronal hole. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22202201
Cocos Island 2 22101100
Darwin 6 33202201
Townsville 7 33202212
Learmonth 5 23202200
Alice Springs 5 23102201
Culgoora 4 22102201
Gingin 3 22202100
Canberra 4 22102201
Launceston 5 22212201
Hobart 3 12102201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 11111100
Casey 16 35502201
Mawson 8 22211214
Davis 7 23311221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2120 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 7 Quiet
10 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The Bz component of IMF remained predominately positive,
geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the Australian
region during the UT day, 07 Sep. Expect magnetic conditions
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels, today 8 Sep then mostly Quiet
on UT days,9-10 Sep as the influence of the coronal hole declines.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 7 Sep. Slightly enhanced MUFs were observed
over Southern Australian region during local night. Mostly near
predicted monthly MUF values are expected for the next three
UT days (8-10 Sep).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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