[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 7 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 6 Sep, with
no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 7-9 Sep, solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery up to 06/1100
UT. During the UT day, 6 Sep the solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 500 Km/s to 400 Km/s. The total IMF Bt was in the range
2-5 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-3 nT, mostly
negative. The solar wind speed is expected to strengthen over
the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. The STEREO A satellite
experienced solar winds of near 550 km/s associated with this
coronal hole, similar solar wind strengths are expected at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 3 11111021
Darwin 3 11101122
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 3 11102121
Alice Springs 2 11101011
Culgoora 3 11111112
Gingin 4 11202121
Canberra 3 11111111
Launceston 5 12212112
Hobart 4 11212111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 01212001
Casey 7 23311122
Mawson 9 42211223
Davis 8 23322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3312 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 15 Quiet to Active
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 6 Sep. Expect magnetic conditions
to increase to Unsettled levels with possible Isolated Active
periods during the next 24 hours in response to CIR and subsequent
HSS associated with a recurrent small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 6 Sep, with Minor MUF depressions in
the Niue Island Region. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values
are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days
(7-9 Sep).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 276000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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