[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 05 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 6 09:30:23 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 5 Sep, with
no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 6-8 Sep, solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery. During the
UT day, 5 Sep the solar wind speed remained enhanced, currently
near 470 km/s. The total IMF Bt was in the range 3-8 nT. The
Bz component of IMF varied between -7 nT and + 5 nT. From late
today, 06 Sep, the solar wind speed is expected to strengthen
further due to coronal hole effects. The STEREO A satellite experienced
solar winds of near 550 km/s associated with this coronal hole,
similar solar wind strengths are expected at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22233211
Cocos Island 5 21222210
Darwin 8 22233202
Townsville 8 22233211
Learmonth 9 32333210
Alice Springs 7 22233201
Culgoora 8 22233211
Gingin 8 32233210
Canberra 7 22233200
Launceston 13 32344211
Hobart 9 22243210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 13 22254201
Casey 14 34433212
Mawson 28 64442343
Davis 25 54442253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2431 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 15 Quiet to Active
07 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region during the UT day 5 Sep with some high latitude locations
experiencing isolated Active levels. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions are expected to persist over the next 3 UT days, 6-8
Sept. Isolated Active periods may be observed late today, 6 Sep
due the effect of a small recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During UT day 5 Sep, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values. Slightly enhanced MUFs were observed over Australasia.
The 3 days (6-8 Sep) outlook is for MUFs to be mostly near monthly
predicted values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 82800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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