[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 5 09:30:18 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 4 Sep, with 
no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot region 
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 5-7 Sep, solar 
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery. During the 
UT day,4 Sep the solar wind speed steadily increased, currently 
near 430 km/s. The total IMF Bt was in the range 2-8 nT. The 
Bz component of IMF varied between -7 nT and + 4 nT with a prolonged 
period of negative Bz around 0400UT. The outlook for today, 5 
Sep is for the solar wind speed to remain near the same level. 
>From late UT day 06 Sep, the solar wind is expected to increase 
in response to an approaching equatorial negative polarity recurrent 
coronal hole. The STEREO A satellite experienced solar winds 
of near 550 km/s associated with this coronal hole, similar solar 
wind strengths are expected at Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   13301211
      Cocos Island         3   12101211
      Darwin               4   12201212
      Townsville           7   23301222
      Learmonth            6   13311211
      Alice Springs        6   23301211
      Culgoora             4   12201122
      Gingin               6   13301221
      Canberra             3   12201111
      Launceston           7   23311212
      Hobart               4   12300111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     6   13321111
      Casey                8   33311112
      Mawson              18   34422244
      Davis                9   23421221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2101 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep    10    Quiet
06 Sep    15    Quiet to Active
07 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian 
region during the UT day 4 Sep. Unsettled conditions observed 
during the first half of the UT day in response to a prolonged 
period of negative Bz. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
are expected for the next 3 UT days, 5-7 September. Isolated 
Active periods may be observed from late 6 Sep due the effect 
of a small recurrent equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep     4    Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep     4    Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep     4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: During UT day 4 Sep, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values. The 3 days(5-7 Sep) outlook is for MUFs to be 
mostly near monthly predicted Values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:   11.1 p/cc  Temp:    21000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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