[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 4 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 3 Sep, with
no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 4-6 Sep, solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind
speed during the last 24 hours was mostly near the nominal level
of 340 Km/s. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours was mostly steady
near 4 nT while the Bz component fluctuated between +/-3 nT.
The outlook for the next two days, 4-5 Sep is for the solar wind
speed to remain near the same level. From late UT day 6 Sep,
the solar wind is expected to start to increase in response to
an approaching equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 22101111
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 3 22101111
Townsville 3 22101111
Learmonth 3 22101110
Alice Springs 3 12101111
Culgoora 3 12101111
Gingin 2 21001100
Canberra 1 11001101
Launceston 4 22002211
Hobart 2 12001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 21001100
Casey 5 23210111
Mawson 11 32200135
Davis 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1220 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 5 Quiet
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
during the UT day 3 Sep. Expect magnetic conditions to be mostly
Quiet for the next two days, 4-5 Sep. Quiet to Unsettled levels
with the possibility of some Active periods from late 6 Sep due
the effect of a small recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During UT day 3 Sep, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values. Slightly enhanced MUFs were observed over Australasia
during local night. The 3 days, (4-6 Sep) outlook is for MUFs
to be mostly near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 18300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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