[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 3 09:30:26 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 2 September. 
There are no sunspots on the visible disc. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 2/2200 
UT. During the last UT day, 2 September, the solar wind speed 
varied between 310 and 360 km/s. The IMF Bt was mostly in the 
range 1 to 6 nT. The Bz component of IMF was varying from -4 
to +2 nT without significant periods of negative Bz. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 UT days, 
3 to 5 September. Solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly 
near its nominal values for the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Cocos Island         1   11100100
      Darwin               1   11000101
      Townsville           2   11101111
      Learmonth            3   11101211
      Alice Springs        1   11100101
      Culgoora             1   11000111
      Gingin               2   11100211
      Canberra             2   11100111
      Launceston           3   11101211
      Hobart               2   11100111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                7   34200211
      Mawson              17   34210345
      Davis                8   23310232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   0100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep     7    Quiet
04 Sep     5    Quiet
05 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
during the UT day 2 September. Antarctic region experienced mostly 
Quiet to Active conditions during the last 24 hours. Quiet global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 3 
to 5 September. Isolated Unsettled periods may be observed on 
3 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: During UT day 2 September MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values. Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 3 to 5 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Sep     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: During UT day 2 September MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values across the Aus/NZ region. Mostly near predicted 
monthly MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 3 to 5 September, 
across the Aus/NZ region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   100000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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