[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 September 18 issued 2340 UT on 01 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 2 09:40:04 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Sep             03 Sep             04 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 1 September. 
There are no sunspots on the visible disc. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 01/2112 
UT. During the last UT day, 1 September, the solar wind speed 
varied between 370 and 410 km/s. The IMF Bt was mostly in the 
range 1.5 to 4.5nT. The Bz component of IMF was mostly positive 
up to around +4 nT by mid day and then mostly negative up to around 
-3.5 nT by 2300 UT. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very 
Low levels for the next 3 UT days, 2 to 4 September. Solar wind 
speed is expected to remain mostly near normal values for the 
next three UT days with the possibility of minor enhancements 
on 3 September due to a solar sector boundary crossing as per 
the recurrence data.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   120000--
      Cocos Island         0   ----00--
      Darwin               4   22101---
      Townsville           3   22100---
      Learmonth            2   02100---
      Alice Springs        2   120010--
      Culgoora             2   12100---
      Gingin               1   110001--
      Canberra             1   020000--
      Launceston           2   12000---
      Hobart               2   12000---    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   010000--
      Casey                7   233101--
      Mawson               1   ----01--
      Davis                5   123110--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1100 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Sep     5    Quiet
03 Sep     7    Mostly Quiet, isolated Unsettled periods possible
04 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
during the UT day 1 September. Antarctic region experienced mostly 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions during the last 24 hours. Quiet 
global geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 2 to 4 September. Isolated Unsettled conditions may be 
observed on 3 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: During UT day 1 September MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor  depressions 
in some low latitude regions and periods of minor MUF enhancements 
in some high latitude regions. Mostly near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 2 to 4 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Sep     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: During UT day 1 September MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values across the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor 
depressions in the Northern areas. In Antarctica, 
MUFs were near predicted monthly values with periods of minor 
enhancements through this UT day. Mostly near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 2 to 4 September across 
the Aus/NZ region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:37%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:    47500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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