[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 1 09:30:24 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Sep             02 Sep             03 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 31 August. There 
are no sunspots on the visible disc. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 31/1842 UT. During 
the last UT day, 31 August, the solar wind speed varied between 
360 and 410 km/s. The IMF Bt was mostly in the range 1 to 8 nT. 
The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +3 and -2 nT until 
around mid-day and then varied between +3 and -5 nT during the 
remaining parts of the day. Solar activity is expected to remain 
at Very Low levels for the next 3 UT days, 1 to 3 September. 
Solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near normal values 
for the next three UT days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Cocos Island         3   11111210
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           3   11111112
      Learmonth            3   11211210
      Alice Springs        2   11111110
      Culgoora             2   11101111
      Gingin               3   00111310
      Canberra             2   01101111
      Launceston           4   11102221
      Hobart               1   01001110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   00012110
      Casey                7   23321111
      Mawson               6   32211221
      Davis                6   22222211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2110 0002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Sep     5    Quiet
02 Sep     5    Quiet
03 Sep     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
during the UT day 31 August. Antarctic region experienced mostly 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions during the last 24 hours. Quiet 
global geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 1 to 3 September. Isolated Unsettled conditions may be 
observed on 3 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: During UT day 31 August MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate depressions 
in some low and mid latitude regions. Mostly near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 1 to 3 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Aug    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Sep    -2    Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep    -2    Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep    -2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: During UT day 31 August MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values across the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor 
to moderate depressions throughout the region. In Antarctica, 
MUFs were near predicted monthly values with periods of moderate 
enhancements through this UT day. Mostly near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 1 to 3 September across 
the Aus/NZ region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:42%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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