[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 October 18 issued 2334 UT on 20 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 21 10:34:22 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 20 October.
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 21-23 October, solar activity
is expected to be at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 20/1712
UT. The solar wind speed started the UT day 20 October at around
305 km/s and is currently around 290 km/s. During the last 24
hours, the IMF Bt started around 2-3 nT, then began increasing
around 20/0300 UT and is currently varying between 4-5 nT. The
IMF Bz is currently varying between +/-4 nT. On UT days 21-22
October the solar wind is expected to remain at nominal values
as the high speed streams from the southern extension of the
north polar coronal hole appear to have missed Earth. The solar
wind may become moderately enhanced on 23 October due to the
influence of a southern-hemisphere negative-polarity coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11001001
Cocos Island 1 011000--
Darwin 0 10000000
Townsville 2 21001101
Learmonth 2 02101001
Alice Springs 1 11000---
Culgoora 1 11001001
Gingin 0 01000---
Canberra 1 010010--
Launceston 1 11101001
Hobart 1 01101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01000---
Casey 12 34310---
Mawson 1 11000---
Davis 4 03211011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 4 Quiet
22 Oct 4 Quiet
23 Oct 10 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels on UT day 20
October across the Australian region. Mainly Quiet levels were
observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated Unsettled to
Active period. On UT days 21-22 October, the geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet levels. Geomagnetic activity may increase
to Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 23 October due to the
possible influence of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
22 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
23 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were
mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 20 October. The
Niue Island region experienced Minor MUF depressions during the
local day. The Northern Australian region experienced Minor MUF
depressions during the local day and local night. The three day
outlook (UT days 21-23 October) is for MUFs to be at near monthly
predicted levels, with the possibility of periods with Minor
depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 21400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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