[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 October 18 issued 2332 UT on 19 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 20 10:32:40 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 October.
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 20-22 October, solar activity
is expected to be at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 19/1600
UT. The solar wind speed started the UT day 19 October at around
320 km/s and is currently around 305 km/s. The IMF Bt mainly
varied between 1-3 nT during the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz mainly
varied in the range +/-2 nT. On UT day 20 October the solar wind
is expected to become enhanced due to the arrival of high speed
streams from the southern extension of the north polar coronal
hole, then start to return to nominal values on 21 October as
the influence of the coronal hole wanes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11000011
Townsville 1 10000011
Learmonth 1 11000011
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Culgoora 0 01000000
Gingin 1 10000011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 01000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 32210111
Mawson 11 22101054
Davis 8 23202041
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 16 Quiet to Active
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels on UT day 19
October across the Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated Active
to Minor Storm period. On UT day 20 October, the geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase from Quiet levels to Unsettled
to Active levels due to the influence of a recurrent coronal
hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to Quiet to
Unsettled levels on UT days 21-22 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
21 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
22 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were
mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 19 October. The
Niue Island region experienced Minor MUF depressions during the
local day and local night. The Northern Australian region experienced
Minor MUF depressions during the local night. Some sporadic E
was observed. The three day outlook (UT days 20-22 October) is
for MUFs to be at near monthly predicted levels, with the possibility
of periods with Minor depressions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list